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Unemployment spike·closes in 4mo

How high will unemployment get before 2027?

YES means Above 4.5%

24h volume
4.51
30.5k lifetime
Open interest
7,612
Spread
3¢
15 × 5,007 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
21%+1

A YES contract costs 21¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
79%

costs 82¢

YES bid / ask
18¢ / 21¢
NO bid / ask
79¢ / 82¢
Recent buying80% YES · 20% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,34462¢
  • ask4760¢
  • ask4.8948¢
  • ask20040¢
  • ask3030¢
  • ask31329¢
  • ask1,78622¢
  • ask5,00721¢
spread3¢mid 19¢
  • bid1518¢
  • bid5517¢
  • bid5,00016¢
  • bid3448¢
  • bid2107¢
  • bid494¢
  • bid2,9973¢
  • bid6,6862¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 4.5%, the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 22 · 7:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 8, 2027 · 1:25 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
4.5
ticker
KXU3MAX-27-4.5
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 80% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
8h ago21¢4.51bought yes
1d ago20¢0.27bought yes
1d ago20¢12bought yes
1d ago20¢24bought yes
1d ago20¢0.44bought yes
1d ago20¢1bought yes
1d ago19¢11bought yes
1d ago19¢4.43bought yes
1d ago19¢0.57bought yes
1d ago18¢0.28bought yes
1d ago18¢5bought yes
1d ago18¢19bought yes
1d ago18¢9bought yes
1d ago18¢44bought yes
1d ago18¢22bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.