Unemployment spike·closes in 40mo

How high will unemployment get before 2030?

YES means Above 20%

24h volume
0
1,269 lifetime
Open interest
182
+0 over 7d
Spread
1,000 × 32 at the touch
24h range
4 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%

A YES contract costs 10¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
/ 10¢
NO bid / ask
90¢ / 96¢
Recent buying0% YES · 100% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢5¢10¢15¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask7099¢
  • ask5698¢
  • ask2997¢
  • ask1950¢
  • ask1,12449¢
  • ask130¢
  • ask1,01411¢
  • ask3210¢
spreadmid
  • bid1,000
  • bid7.5
  • bid79
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If, from June 2025 to January 2030 the U-3 unemployment rate is above 20%, the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 4, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 4, 2030 · 1:25 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
20
ticker
KXU3MAX-30-20
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 4 trades, 0% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
19d ago14bought no
19d ago1bought no
2mo ago62bought no
2mo ago10bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.