UK Renewables Obligation scheme changes·closes in 16mo

Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce the termination of the Renewables Obligation scheme for existing accredited generators before their scheduled end dates before Jan 1, 2028?

YES means Cancellation

24h volume
0
23 lifetime
Open interest
5
Spread
5 × 200 at the touch
24h range
2 recent trades
Chance of YES
24%

A YES contract costs 24¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
76%

costs 83¢

YES bid / ask
17¢ / 24¢
NO bid / ask
76¢ / 83¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,000100¢
  • ask5099¢
  • ask3,86198¢
  • ask24798¢
  • ask20024¢
spreadmid 21¢
  • bid517¢
  • bid20016¢
  • bid232
  • bid912
  • bid50
  • bid11.0k
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United Kingdom agrees to or announces the termination of the Renewables Obligation scheme for existing accredited generators before their scheduled end dates before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify. The following do NOT qualify: Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments

opened
Mar 14 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXUKRENEWOB-28JAN01-CANC
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 2 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
19d ago24¢3bought yes
19d ago23¢6bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.