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U.S. headline inflation at year end·closes in 17mo

Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2027 be above 4.5%?

YES means Above 4.5%

24h volume
0
328 lifetime
Open interest
109
+0 over 7d
Spread
27¢
0 × 1.18 at the touch
24h range
–
32 recent trades
Chance of YES
16%

A YES contract costs 27¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
84%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 27¢
NO bid / ask
73¢ / 100¢
Recent buying48% YES · 52% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢30¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask6,72578¢
  • ask15.0k70¢
  • ask1,06065¢
  • ask2,92564¢
  • ask50050¢
  • ask4949¢
  • ask30031¢
  • ask1.1827¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U, U.S. city average, all items, not seasonally adjusted, in December 2027 is above 4.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.

    The initially reported value for December 2027 will be used. This market concerns the 12-month percentage change for December 2027, not the annual-average percentage change for the specified year.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Jul 29 · 11:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Feb 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Feb 8, 2028 · 6:30 AM UTC
    floor
    4.5
    ticker
    KXUSCPIYEAR-28FEB01-T4.5
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    This event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    This is the only market in its event.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 32 trades, 48% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    19d ago16¢84bought yes
    19d ago15¢5bought yes
    19d ago3¢5bought no
    19d ago5¢5bought no
    1mo ago16¢5bought no
    1mo ago16¢5bought no
    1mo ago16¢5bought no
    1mo ago18¢25bought no
    1mo ago18¢25bought no
    1mo ago18¢25bought no
    1mo ago18¢25bought no
    2mo ago47¢15bought yes
    2mo ago47¢9bought yes
    2mo ago25¢2bought yes
    2mo ago20¢26bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.