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U.S. headline inflation at year end·closes in 53mo

Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2030 be above 4.0%?

YES means Above 4.0%

24h volume
0
63 lifetime
Open interest
14
+0 over 7d
Spread
93¢
0 × 10 at the touch
24h range
–
12 recent trades
Chance of YES
21%

A YES contract costs 93¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
79%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 93¢
NO bid / ask
7¢ / 100¢
Recent buying46% YES · 54% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask194¢
  • ask1093¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U, U.S. city average, all items, not seasonally adjusted, in December 2030 is above 4.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.

    The initially reported value for December 2030 will be used. This market concerns the 12-month percentage change for December 2030, not the annual-average percentage change for the specified year.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Jul 29 · 11:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Feb 1, 2031 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Feb 8, 2031 · 6:30 AM UTC
    floor
    4
    ticker
    KXUSCPIYEAR-31FEB01-T4.0
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 12 trades, 46% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    1mo ago21¢1bought no
    1mo ago27¢0.04bought no
    1mo ago27¢0.96bought no
    1mo ago27¢0.04bought no
    1mo ago29¢1bought no
    2mo ago22¢15bought yes
    2mo ago21¢4bought yes
    2mo ago22¢10bought yes
    2mo ago26¢25bought no
    2mo ago26¢4bought no
    2mo ago27¢2bought no
    2mo ago27¢0.01bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.