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U.S. headline inflation at year end·closes in 114mo

Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2035 be above 4.0%?

YES means Above 4.0%

24h volume
0
421 lifetime
Open interest
19
Spread
100¢
0 × 0 at the touch
24h range
–
24 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 100¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 100¢
NO bid / ask
0¢ / 100¢
Recent buying54% YES · 46% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Empty book.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U, U.S. city average, all items, not seasonally adjusted, in December 2035 is above 4.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.

The initially reported value for December 2035 will be used. This market concerns the 12-month percentage change for December 2035, not the annual-average percentage change for the specified year.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 11:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 1, 2036 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 8, 2036 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
4
ticker
KXUSCPIYEAR-36FEB01-T4.0
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 24 trades, 54% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
12d ago1¢13bought no
12d ago99¢0.1bought no
12d ago99¢10bought no
12d ago98¢2.9bought yes
12d ago34¢6bought no
20d ago40¢32bought yes
20d ago39¢43bought yes
26d ago41¢25bought no
26d ago41¢25bought no
26d ago41¢25bought no
1mo ago39¢10bought yes
1mo ago39¢25bought yes
1mo ago39¢25bought yes
1mo ago38¢25bought yes
1mo ago38¢60bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.