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JD Vance announces presidential run by...?·closes in 3mo

Will JD Vance announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2027

24h volume
21
3,061 lifetime
Open interest
1,390
−200 over 7d
Spread
28¢
5 × 80 at the touch
24h range
14¢ – 33¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
33%+24

A YES contract costs 33¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
67%

costs 95¢

YES bid / ask
5¢ / 33¢
NO bid / ask
67¢ / 95¢
24h low 14¢24h high 33¢
Recent buying42% YES · 58% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢30¢40¢volSep 15Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,65678¢
  • ask2169¢
  • ask46865¢
  • ask43363¢
  • ask29862¢
  • ask5260¢
  • ask28034¢
  • ask8033¢
spread28¢mid 19¢
  • bid55¢
  • bid52¢
  • bid291¢
  • bid501¢
  • bid821¢
  • bid2581¢
  • bid10.0k0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If JD Vance has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 7 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXVANCERUN-28-27JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 42% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
13h ago14¢12bought yes
13h ago30¢1bought yes
13h ago33¢8.39bought yes
2d ago9¢8bought yes
2d ago9¢8bought yes
2d ago9¢9bought yes
4d ago9¢200bought yes
9d ago8¢2.62bought yes
9d ago9¢21bought yes
9d ago8¢3.65bought yes
9d ago8¢0.81bought yes
9d ago8¢4.02bought yes
9d ago7¢10bought yes
9d ago8¢2bought yes
9d ago8¢16bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.