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Victorian state election·closes in 14mo

Will Australian Labor Party win the 2026 Victorian state election?

YES means Australian Labor Party

24h volume
0
1,593 lifetime
Open interest
226
Spread
9¢
200 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
33 recent trades
Chance of YES
22%

A YES contract costs 22¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
78%

costs 87¢

YES bid / ask
13¢ / 22¢
NO bid / ask
78¢ / 87¢
Recent buying46% YES · 54% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask979¢
  • ask43478¢
  • ask24977¢
  • ask20023¢
  • ask522¢
spread9¢mid 18¢
  • bid20013¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Australian Labor Party wins the 2026 Victorian state election, then the market resolves to Yes.

For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For this market, “Liberals and Nationals” means the combined number of Legislative Assembly seats won by candidates endorsed by the Liberal Party of Australia (Victorian Division) or the National Party of Australia – Victoria. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 20 · 4:21 PM UTC
closes
Nov 28, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 28, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXVICTORIANSTATE-26NOV28-ALP
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 33 trades, 46% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago22¢200bought yes
10d ago22¢22bought yes
23d ago21¢10bought yes
23d ago22¢60bought yes
29d ago24¢10bought no
29d ago23¢20bought no
29d ago24¢20bought no
29d ago24¢12bought no
29d ago25¢18bought no
29d ago25¢10bought no
1mo ago22¢139bought no
2mo ago30¢1bought no
2mo ago37¢2.8bought yes
2mo ago36¢208bought no
2mo ago36¢7bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.