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County vote percentages·closes in 14mo

Will Katie Hobbs receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Maricopa County, Arizona?

YES means At least 54%

24h volume
0
1,753 lifetime
Open interest
1,724
+1,724 over 7d
Spread
4¢
101 × 6 at the touch
24h range
–
10 recent trades
Chance of YES
63%

A YES contract costs 64¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
37%

costs 40¢

YES bid / ask
60¢ / 64¢
NO bid / ask
36¢ / 40¢
Recent buying85% YES · 15% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
40¢50¢60¢70¢volSep 19, 3:00 PMSep 21, 9:00 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask8986¢
  • ask1385¢
  • ask7684¢
  • ask10082¢
  • ask3.981¢
  • ask20068¢
  • ask1067¢
  • ask664¢
spread4¢mid 62¢
  • bid10160¢
  • bid559¢
  • bid20058¢
  • bid4.0828¢
  • bid36427¢
  • bid44826¢
  • bid14122¢
  • bid21014¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Katie Hobbs in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Maricopa County, Arizona is 54% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 19 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 3, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC
floor
54
ticker
KXVOTECOUNTY-GOVPARTYAZ26MARICOPAKHOB-54
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 10 trades, 85% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago63¢23bought no
2d ago63¢40bought no
2d ago63¢5.99bought no
2d ago63¢0.01bought no
2d ago63¢200bought no
2d ago47¢34bought yes
2d ago47¢200bought yes
2d ago47¢1,050bought yes
2d ago47¢0.01bought yes
2d ago47¢200bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.