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County vote percentages·closes in 14mo

Will Josh Shapiro receive at least 88% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania?

YES means At least 88%

24h volume
32
3,609 lifetime
Open interest
3,550
+3,550 over 7d
Spread
6¢
5 × 200 at the touch
24h range
30¢ – 30¢
12 recent trades
Chance of YES
30%+3

A YES contract costs 31¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
70%

costs 75¢

YES bid / ask
25¢ / 31¢
NO bid / ask
69¢ / 75¢
24h low 30¢24h high 30¢
Recent buying75% YES · 25% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
15¢20¢25¢30¢35¢volSep 20, 2:00 AMSep 21, 2:00 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5.3378¢
  • ask3.5175¢
  • ask48870¢
  • ask34169¢
  • ask5066¢
  • ask10065¢
  • ask563¢
  • ask20031¢
spread6¢mid 28¢
  • bid525¢
  • bid524¢
  • bid1022¢
  • bid20021¢
  • bid10010¢
  • bid889¢
  • bid507¢
  • bid1516¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Josh Shapiro in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania is 88% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 19 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 3, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC
floor
88
ticker
KXVOTECOUNTY-GOVPARTYPA26PHILADELPHIAJSHA-88
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 12 trades, 75% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7h ago30¢32bought yes
1d ago27¢3.51bought yes
1d ago24¢24bought yes
1d ago24¢1,001bought yes
1d ago24¢94bought yes
1d ago24¢1,050bought yes
1d ago24¢493bought yes
1d ago24¢0.01bought yes
1d ago32¢56bought no
1d ago32¢456bought no
1d ago32¢200bought no
1d ago24¢200bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.