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County vote percentages·closes in 14mo

Will James Talarico receive at least 58% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Hidalgo County, Texas?

YES means At least 58%

24h volume
206
3,638 lifetime
Open interest
3,591
+3,591 over 7d
Spread
3¢
2.48 × 200 at the touch
24h range
44¢ – 56¢
17 recent trades
Chance of YES
48%−12

A YES contract costs 52¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
52%

costs 51¢

YES bid / ask
49¢ / 52¢
NO bid / ask
48¢ / 51¢
24h low 44¢24h high 56¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢volSep 20, 3:00 AMSep 21, 9:00 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10099¢
  • ask7098¢
  • ask27882¢
  • ask7581¢
  • ask20052¢
spread3¢mid 51¢
  • bid2.4849¢
  • bid548¢
  • bid1043¢
  • bid20042¢
  • bid421¢
  • bid20420¢
  • bid28819¢
  • bid1001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Hidalgo County, Texas is 58% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 19 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 3, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC
floor
58
ticker
KXVOTECOUNTY-SENATETX26HIDALGOJTAL-58
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 17 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
18h ago48¢95bought yes
18h ago44¢2bought no
18h ago48¢95bought yes
18h ago48¢5bought yes
18h ago48¢2bought yes
18h ago48¢3bought yes
20h ago56¢4bought yes
1d ago59¢14bought yes
1d ago60¢10bought yes
1d ago60¢20bought yes
1d ago57¢39bought yes
1d ago57¢16bought yes
1d ago57¢200bought yes
1d ago55¢44bought yes
1d ago52¢960bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.