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Which Senators will vote for Kari Lake?·closes in 16mo

Will Lisa Murkowski vote for Kari Lake?

YES means Lisa Murkowski

24h volume
0
1,906 lifetime
Open interest
410
+0 over 7d
Spread
40¢
5 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
8 recent trades
Chance of YES
29%

A YES contract costs 44¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
71%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
4¢ / 44¢
NO bid / ask
56¢ / 96¢
Recent buying83% YES · 17% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢30¢40¢50¢volSep 15Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,20784¢
  • ask1,49083¢
  • ask5082¢
  • ask34467¢
  • ask20066¢
  • ask565¢
  • ask20045¢
  • ask544¢
spread40¢mid 24¢
  • bid54¢
  • bid1,0003¢
  • bid1442¢
  • bid2061¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Lisa Murkowski votes Yea for Kari Lake for United States Ambassador to Jamaica before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate, this market shall resolve to No. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, this market shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. If the nominee is withdrawn (or intent to nominate a nominee is withdrawn by the President or President-elect), then the market will resolve to No. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. Once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by Lisa Murkowski to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.

Settlement sources
opened
May 12 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXVOTELAKE-28-LMUR
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 8 trades, 83% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1mo ago29¢5bought no
2mo ago29¢1bought no
2mo ago36¢5bought no
2mo ago35¢50bought no
2mo ago37¢200bought yes
2mo ago36¢100bought yes
2mo ago35¢2.79bought yes
2mo ago34¢2.79bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.