galdor.xyz
Admin
Popular vote margin of victory·closes in 32mo

Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 7.0% to 7.99%?

YES means Democratic by 7.0% to 7.99%

24h volume
0
5,012 lifetime
Open interest
3,870
+602 over 7d
Spread
3¢
95 × 5.3 at the touch
24h range
10¢ – 24¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
10%

A YES contract costs 12¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
90%

costs 91¢

YES bid / ask
9¢ / 12¢
NO bid / ask
88¢ / 91¢
24h low 10¢24h high 24¢
Recent buying63% YES · 37% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask545¢
  • ask1,00039¢
  • ask42738¢
  • ask69124¢
  • ask50017¢
  • ask216¢
  • ask1613¢
  • ask5.312¢
spread3¢mid 11¢
  • bid959¢
  • bid6678¢
  • bid996¢
  • bid1,1305¢
  • bid2504¢
  • bid5753¢
  • bid1002¢
  • bid2581¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a member of the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 7.00-7.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.

The popular vote margin is calculated as (total votes for the winner minus total votes for second place) divided by total votes, times 100, rounded to two decimal places. The calculation uses the states' and DC's most recent certificates of ascertainment of presidential election results as of the date of the January joint session of Congress. If multiple certificates of ascertainment are sent to Congress for a state, the one Congress counts is used. If Congress rejects all certificates for a state, the most recently issued one is used. Votes cast for a candidate under multiple party nominations are aggregated. If the winner changes party affiliation between the election and being sworn in, the market resolves based on their Election Day party. If no party wins the popular vote (exact tie at 0.00%), all markets resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
May 20 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
May 6, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
-7.99
cap
-7
ticker
POPVOTEMOV-28NOV07-DEM700T799
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 109¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 63% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago10¢4.7bought no
2d ago10¢5.3bought no
2d ago10¢2bought no
2d ago13¢45bought yes
2d ago13¢5.3bought yes
2d ago12¢19bought yes
2d ago12¢5bought yes
5d ago11¢43bought no
5d ago12¢24bought no
5d ago12¢5bought no
5d ago12¢21bought no
5d ago13¢55bought no
5d ago10¢5bought no
5d ago24¢21bought yes
5d ago15¢5bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.