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Alaska Senate race·closes in 14mo

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Alaska?

YES means Democratic party

24h volume
10.4k
475.3k lifetime
Open interest
304.6k
+78.4k over 7d
Spread
1¢
10.3k × 252.4k at the touch
24h range
64¢ – 73¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
71%+3

A YES contract costs 71¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
29%

costs 30¢

YES bid / ask
70¢ / 71¢
NO bid / ask
29¢ / 30¢
24h low 64¢24h high 73¢
Recent buying87% YES · 13% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
60¢65¢70¢75¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3.1880¢
  • ask3,79977¢
  • ask2,00076¢
  • ask2,27675¢
  • ask25.0k74¢
  • ask10.0k73¢
  • ask80072¢
  • ask252.4k71¢
spread1¢mid 71¢
  • bid10.3k70¢
  • bid2,92469¢
  • bid12.3k68¢
  • bid25.0k67¢
  • bid2566¢
  • bid6,60565¢
  • bid252.0k64¢
  • bid5,63663¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Alaska for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 3, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATEAK-26-D
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 101¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 87% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
13m ago71¢1.38bought yes
33m ago71¢0.5bought yes
34m ago71¢14bought yes
2h ago70¢1bought no
3h ago71¢5bought yes
4h ago70¢1bought no
4h ago71¢987bought no
4h ago71¢40bought no
4h ago71¢99bought no
4h ago72¢0.05bought yes
4h ago72¢0.27bought yes
5h ago72¢40bought yes
7h ago72¢0.68bought yes
7h ago72¢4bought yes
7h ago72¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.