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Arizona Senate race·closes in 38mo

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Arizona?

YES means Democratic party

24h volume
0
9,277 lifetime
Open interest
4,330
+0.58 over 7d
Spread
7¢
345 × 50 at the touch
24h range
–
18 recent trades
Chance of YES
73%

A YES contract costs 77¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
27%

costs 30¢

YES bid / ask
70¢ / 77¢
NO bid / ask
23¢ / 30¢
Recent buying2% YES · 98% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
65¢70¢75¢80¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask11.3k96¢
  • ask3,06096¢
  • ask5096¢
  • ask1,59296¢
  • ask1,66194¢
  • ask55094¢
  • ask3.7293¢
  • ask5077¢
spread7¢mid 74¢
  • bid34570¢
  • bid147¢
  • bid1341¢
  • bid5240¢
  • bid4539¢
  • bid3,93538¢
  • bid1,87337¢
  • bid31236¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Arizona for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 15, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATEAZ-28-D
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 102¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 18 trades, 2% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago73¢1.88bought yes
3d ago73¢0.12bought yes
6d ago72¢339bought no
6d ago74¢0.7bought no
9d ago75¢20bought no
27d ago75¢0.8bought no
1mo ago75¢1bought no
1mo ago75¢1bought no
1mo ago75¢12bought no
1mo ago77¢1.27bought yes
2mo ago73¢0.12bought no
2mo ago77¢0.12bought yes
2mo ago77¢5.23bought yes
2mo ago77¢0.8bought yes
2mo ago77¢1.4bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.