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HI senate·closes in 38mo

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Hawaii?

YES means Democratic party

24h volume
0
2,793 lifetime
Open interest
1,158
Spread
3¢
501 × 500 at the touch
24h range
–
12 recent trades
Chance of YES
90%

A YES contract costs 89¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
10%

costs 14¢

YES bid / ask
86¢ / 89¢
NO bid / ask
11¢ / 14¢
Recent buying68% YES · 32% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10.0k100¢
  • ask218.4k99¢
  • ask19.4k99¢
  • ask1,77099¢
  • ask1,00096¢
  • ask23196¢
  • ask5496¢
  • ask50089¢
spread3¢mid 88¢
  • bid50186¢
  • bid7584¢
  • bid152¢
  • bid5746¢
  • bid74445¢
  • bid6544¢
  • bid23138¢
  • bid50537¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Hawaii for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 15, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATEHI-28-D
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 100¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 12 trades, 68% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago90¢1bought yes
22d ago89¢2.23bought yes
29d ago85¢8.79bought no
29d ago85¢20bought no
1mo ago90¢2bought yes
1mo ago93¢25bought yes
1mo ago85¢9.21bought no
1mo ago86¢9.21bought yes
1mo ago86¢12bought yes
2mo ago86¢12bought yes
2mo ago86¢14bought yes
2mo ago86¢4.69bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.