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Idaho Senate race·closes in 38mo

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Idaho?

YES means Republican party

24h volume
0
3,134 lifetime
Open interest
343
−2 over 7d
Spread
3¢
505 × 500 at the touch
24h range
–
8 recent trades
Chance of YES
87%

A YES contract costs 90¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
13%

costs 13¢

YES bid / ask
87¢ / 90¢
NO bid / ask
10¢ / 13¢
Recent buying6% YES · 94% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
80¢85¢90¢95¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask130.2k99¢
  • ask3,09899¢
  • ask3,63096¢
  • ask4796¢
  • ask3796¢
  • ask294¢
  • ask10893¢
  • ask50090¢
spread3¢mid 89¢
  • bid50587¢
  • bid1,10186¢
  • bid157¢
  • bid4450¢
  • bid6549¢
  • bid1,31743¢
  • bid27542¢
  • bid53236¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Idaho for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 15, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATEID-28-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 103¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 8 trades, 6% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago87¢2bought no
3d ago90¢2bought yes
17d ago90¢5.51bought yes
26d ago87¢467bought no
2mo ago90¢11bought yes
2mo ago91¢11bought yes
2mo ago89¢1bought yes
2mo ago89¢2bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.