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Illinois Senate race·closes in 14mo

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Illinois?

YES means Don Tracy

24h volume
6
8,383 lifetime
Open interest
6,715
+586 over 7d
Spread
1¢
0.13 × 10.0k at the touch
24h range
2¢ – 2¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%−1

A YES contract costs 3¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 3¢
NO bid / ask
97¢ / 98¢
24h low 2¢24h high 2¢
Recent buying95% YES · 5% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,02320¢
  • ask1,70118¢
  • ask5008¢
  • ask5007¢
  • ask2,0006¢
  • ask1,0915¢
  • ask113¢
  • ask10.0k3¢
spread1¢mid 2¢
  • bid0.132¢
  • bid4.191¢
  • bid5891¢
  • bid5501¢
  • bid860¢
  • bid10.0k0¢
  • bid1,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Illinois for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 3, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATEIL-26-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 99¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 95% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
10h ago2¢5.99bought no
10h ago2¢0.01bought no
2d ago2¢50bought yes
2d ago3¢375bought yes
6d ago3¢167bought yes
9d ago3¢1.01bought yes
9d ago2¢1.01bought no
11d ago3¢9bought yes
11d ago1¢6bought no
12d ago3¢1bought yes
12d ago3¢1bought yes
12d ago3¢1bought yes
12d ago3¢1bought yes
12d ago3¢1bought yes
12d ago3¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.