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Senate races·closes in 14mo

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Kentucky?

YES means Andy Barr

24h volume
35
72.9k lifetime
Open interest
34.9k
Spread
1¢
20 × 27 at the touch
24h range
94¢ – 95¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
94%

A YES contract costs 95¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
6%

costs 6¢

YES bid / ask
94¢ / 95¢
NO bid / ask
5¢ / 6¢
24h low 94¢24h high 95¢
Recent buying78% YES · 22% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask22296¢
  • ask22296¢
  • ask22296¢
  • ask22296¢
  • ask60095¢
  • ask22195¢
  • ask5195¢
  • ask2795¢
spread1¢mid 95¢
  • bid2094¢
  • bid9,82394¢
  • bid5094¢
  • bid3,10094¢
  • bid5,00094¢
  • bid1,51793¢
  • bid51090¢
  • bid32487¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Kentucky for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 3, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATELA-26-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 78% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
19m ago94¢0.09bought no
19m ago94¢0.02bought no
19m ago94¢0.01bought no
19m ago94¢5.16bought no
4h ago95¢0.01bought yes
4h ago95¢0.02bought yes
4h ago95¢0.09bought yes
6h ago95¢0.38bought yes
10h ago94¢22bought yes
13h ago94¢1.05bought no
14h ago94¢1.05bought yes
19h ago94¢1.01bought no
19h ago94¢1.01bought no
22h ago95¢3.14bought yes
1d ago94¢23bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.