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North Carolina Senate race·closes in 38mo

Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?

YES means Democratic party

24h volume
0
8,123 lifetime
Open interest
3,468
+74 over 7d
Spread
63¢
7 × 1 at the touch
24h range
66¢ – 66¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
66%

A YES contract costs 92¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
34%

costs 71¢

YES bid / ask
29¢ / 92¢
NO bid / ask
8¢ / 71¢
24h low 66¢24h high 66¢
Recent buying56% YES · 44% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢100¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5,000100¢
  • ask924.0k99¢
  • ask43.2k97¢
  • ask3197¢
  • ask1,00096¢
  • ask20.2k94¢
  • ask55094¢
  • ask192¢
spread63¢mid 61¢
  • bid729¢
  • bid15624¢
  • bid22323¢
  • bid5619¢
  • bid1,24918¢
  • bid4615¢
  • bid2,27214¢
  • bid8,50711¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of North Carolina for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 15, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 4, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
SENATENC-28-D
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 98¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 56% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6d ago66¢74bought yes
12d ago66¢7.39bought yes
13d ago66¢6.51bought yes
13d ago58¢0.99bought yes
14d ago58¢0.01bought no
20d ago65¢0.01bought yes
24d ago38¢39bought yes
24d ago37¢220bought no
24d ago65¢200bought no
26d ago73¢1.29bought no
26d ago76¢1.29bought yes
27d ago76¢39bought yes
27d ago75¢500bought no
1mo ago75¢5bought no
1mo ago74¢500bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.