Will Republican win the 2028 presidential election by 211 to 538 Electoral College votes?

Republican by 211 or moreactivebinarybetween

Public page Open on kalshi.com

Yes bid / ask

1¢ / 10¢

spread 9¢

Last trade

1¢

–

No bid / ask

90¢ / 99¢

24h volume

0

1,650 lifetime

Open interest

1,649

top of book 449 × 200

Closes

in 32mo

May 6, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC

YES price

Close per candle with bid/ask band; volume below. Times in UTC.

24h · 1m 7d · 1h 30d · 1h 90d · 1d

Resolution rules

Verbatim from the venue. The analyst must quote these, never paraphrase.

If Republican wins the Electoral College vote in 2028 by a margin of between 211-538 votes above the second-place candidate, then the market resolves to Yes.

opens: May 15 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes: May 6, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
expires: Jan 8, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor: 211
cap: 538

Recent trades

Most recent first. Price is the YES side.

No trades yet.

Raw payload

Exactly what the API returned for this market.

Show JSON

market43

can_close_earlytrue

cap_strike538

close_time2029-05-06T15:00:00Z

created_time2026-05-14T18:17:12.275427Z

early_close_condition

Order book

Top of book, both sides expressed as YES prices.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask32985¢
ask4684¢
ask9461¢
ask19553¢
ask28552¢
ask130¢
ask112¢
ask20010¢

spread9¢mid 5¢

bid4491¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

This market will close and expire at the first 10:00 AM ET following the conclusion of the January joint session of Congress to count electoral college ballots, including if no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes.

event_tickerECMOV-28NOV07

exchange_index0

expected_expiration_time2029-01-08T15:00:00Z

expiration_time2029-05-06T15:00:00Z

expiration_value

floor_strike211

last_price_dollars0.0100

latest_expiration_time2029-05-06T15:00:00Z

liquidity_dollars0.0000

market_typebinary

no_ask_dollars0.9900

no_bid_dollars0.9000

no_sub_titleRepublican by 211 or more

notional_value_dollars1.0000

occurrence_datetime2029-01-08T15:00:00Z

open_interest_fp1649.42

open_time2026-05-15T14:00:00Z

previous_price_dollars0.0100

previous_yes_ask_dollars0.1000

previous_yes_bid_dollars0.0100

price_level_structurelinear_cent

price_ranges1

[0]3

end1.0000

start0.0000

step0.0100

result

rules_primaryIf Republican wins the Electoral College vote in 2028 by a margin of between 211-538 votes above the second-place candidate, then the market resolves to Yes.

rules_secondary