Verbatim from the venue. The analyst must quote these, never paraphrase.
If federal legislation imposing an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
A qualifying federal law must impose an enforceable standard requiring AI developers or deployers to take reasonable care, or equivalent precautions, to prevent or mitigate catastrophic harm from their models or systems. This means large-scale harm such as mass casualties, major disruption of critical infrastructure, or comparably severe economic or environmental damage; the law need not use the exact phrase "duty of care".
Requiring a framework, audit, report, or shutdown control alone is insufficient. A framework qualifies only when the law makes the adequacy of the developer's precautions against catastrophic harm an enforceable obligation. Government enforcement or civil liability may enforce the duty. A later effective date does not delay qualification.
An example of this is the catastrophic-risk duty-of-care proposal being negotiated by Senators John Thune, Ted Cruz, and Amy Klobuchar.
Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2028?
Before Jan 1, 2028
KXAIDUTYOFCARE-26SEP-28JAN01
50¢
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Date
Jul 1, 2027
early_close_conditionThis market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
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no_sub_titleBefore Jul 1, 2027
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result
rules_primaryIf federal legislation imposing an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
rules_secondaryA qualifying federal law must impose an enforceable standard requiring AI developers or deployers to take reasonable care, or equivalent precautions, to prevent or mitigate catastrophic harm from their models or systems. This means large-scale harm such as mass casualties, major disruption of critical infrastructure, or comparably severe economic or environmental damage; the law need not use the exact phrase "duty of care".
Requiring a framework, audit, report, or shutdown control alone is insufficient. A framework qualifies only when the law makes the adequacy of the developer's precautions against catastrophic harm an enforceable obligation. Government enforcement or civil liability may enforce the duty. A later effective date does not delay qualification.
An example of this is the catastrophic-risk duty-of-care proposal being negotiated by Senators John Thune, Ted Cruz, and Amy Klobuchar.
settlement_timer_seconds1800
statusactive
strike_typecustom
tickerKXAIDUTYOFCARE-26SEP-27JUL01
titleWill an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jul 1, 2027?