Will the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit rule affirms the April 8, 2025 preliminary injunction as it applies to the Oval Office, Air Force One or Mar-a-Lago?

If the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit affirms the April 8, 2025 preliminary injunction as it applies to the Oval Office, Air Force One or Mar-a-Lago in Associated Press v. Budowich, No. 25-5109 before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

The ruling must: Be issued by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit in Associated Press v. Budowich, No. 25-5109 Address the matter described by the specified judgment Be issued through a written order, opinion, judgment, or decision A panel decision and a decision of the court sitting en banc both count. An affirmance as to any one of the Oval Office, Air Force One or Mar-a-Lago is enough, and partial affirmance counts. The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: An affirmance limited to the East Room, which the June 6, 2025 stay order already left in force The June 6, 2025 stay order, and the July 22, 2025 order denying en banc reconsideration of it Any order granting, modifying, extending, lifting or denying a stay Reversal or vacatur of the preliminary injunction, or a remand for further proceedings Any ruling of the U.S. Supreme Court Settlements or voluntary dismissals Restoration of Associated Press access to these spaces without a qualifying ruling, whether through a change in White House press practice or otherwise, does not resolve this market to YES. If no qualifying ruling is issued after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, this market resolves to NO.

opens

Aug 20 · 2:00 PM UTC

closes

Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early

expires