Will Bitcoin be below $45000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?

Below $45,000.00activebinaryless

Public page Open on kalshi.com

Yes bid / ask

9¢ / 10¢

spread 1¢

Last trade

9¢

–

No bid / ask

90¢ / 91¢

24h volume

285

897.6k lifetime

Open interest

375.9k

top of book 2,666 × 790

Closes

in 3mo

Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC

YES price

Close per candle with bid/ask band; volume below. Times in UTC.

24h · 1m 7d · 1h 30d · 1h 90d · 1d

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Top of book, both sides expressed as YES prices.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask12017¢
ask3,00016¢
ask10515¢
ask5,05614¢

Resolution rules

Verbatim from the venue. The analyst must quote these, never paraphrase.

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is below $45000.00 starting Feb 5, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

opens: Feb 5 · 8:30 PM UTC
closes: Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC · may close early
expires: Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC
cap: 45000

Recent trades

Most recent first. Price is the YES side.

Time	Yes	No	Size	Taker
5h ago	9¢	91¢

Raw payload

Exactly what the API returned for this market.

Show JSON

market41

can_close_earlytrue

cap_strike45000

close_time2027-01-01T05:00:00Z

created_time2026-02-05T20:25:12.017735Z

early_close_condition