Verbatim from the venue. The analyst must quote these, never paraphrase.
If John Ratcliffe is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave (such as by quitting, being fired, or being impeached) after May 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If two persons announce they intend to leave at the same time, then the one who leaves first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. If multiple persons both announce they intend to leave and leave at the same time as other members, then the one whose last name is alphabetically first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. A leave of absence does not constitute leaving the position.
For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. Acting roles are not included. Leaving office as a result of death is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
opens
May 22 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
expires
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
Recent trades
Most recent first. Price is the YES side.
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Raw payload
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market42
can_close_earlytrue
close_time2029-01-20T15:00:00Z
created_time2026-05-22T17:45:33.523698Z
custom_strike1
Person
John Ratcliffe
early_close_conditionThis market will close and expire early if the event occurs for any person.
event_tickerKXCABOUT-26MAY22
exchange_index0
expected_expiration_time2029-01-20T15:00:00Z
expiration_time2029-01-20T15:00:00Z
expiration_value
last_price_dollars0.0100
latest_expiration_time2029-01-20T15:00:00Z
liquidity_dollars0.0000
market_typebinary
no_ask_dollars1.0000
no_bid_dollars0.9900
no_sub_titleJohn Ratcliffe
notional_value_dollars1.0000
occurrence_datetime2029-01-20T15:00:00Z
open_interest_fp3154.38
open_time2026-05-22T18:00:00Z
previous_price_dollars0.0100
previous_yes_ask_dollars0.0100
previous_yes_bid_dollars0.0000
price_level_structurelinear_cent
price_ranges1
[0]3
end1.0000
start0.0000
step0.0100
result
rules_primaryIf John Ratcliffe is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave (such as by quitting, being fired, or being impeached) after May 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
rules_secondaryIf two persons announce they intend to leave at the same time, then the one who leaves first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. If multiple persons both announce they intend to leave and leave at the same time as other members, then the one whose last name is alphabetically first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. A leave of absence does not constitute leaving the position.
For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. Acting roles are not included. Leaving office as a result of death is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
settlement_timer_seconds1800
statusactive
strike_typecustom
tickerKXCABOUT-26MAY22-JRAT
titleWill John Ratcliffe be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?