Will the US default on its debt by Dec 31, 2026?

Defaultsactivebinary

Public page Open on kalshi.com

Yes bid / ask

1¢ / 3¢

spread 2¢

Last trade

3¢

–

No bid / ask

97¢ / 99¢

24h volume

1,655 lifetime

Open interest

1,186

top of book 254 × 2,983

Closes

in 3mo

Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC

YES price

Close per candle with bid/ask band; volume below. Times in UTC.

24h · 1m 7d · 1h 30d · 1h 90d · 1d

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Top of book, both sides expressed as YES prices.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask26495¢
ask5,00095¢
ask124¢
ask3,00015¢

Resolution rules

Verbatim from the venue. The analyst must quote these, never paraphrase.

If the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces that the United States Federal Government failed to make a scheduled payment on a Treasury note, bond, or bill; or that one of the three major credit ratings agencies designate any United States debt in any form of default, before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

U.S. Department of the Treasury

opens: Mar 12 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes: Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
expires: Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
category: Economics
event: independent outcomes

Recent trades

Most recent first. Price is the YES side.

Time	Yes	No	Size	Taker
15d ago	3¢	97¢

Raw payload

Exactly what the API returned for this market.

Show JSON

market39

can_close_earlytrue

close_time2027-01-01T04:59:00Z

created_time2026-03-11T23:29:23.187437Z

early_close_conditionIf this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.