Will the US default on its debt by Dec 31, 2028?

Defaultsactivebinary

Public page Open on kalshi.com

Yes bid / ask

8¢ / 11¢

spread 3¢

Last trade

11¢

–

No bid / ask

89¢ / 92¢

24h volume

3,522 lifetime

Open interest

1,654

top of book 205 × 1,658

Closes

in 28mo

Jan 1, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC

YES price

Close per candle with bid/ask band; volume below. Times in UTC.

24h · 1m 7d · 1h 30d · 1h 90d · 1d

Resolution rules

Verbatim from the venue. The analyst must quote these, never paraphrase.

If the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces that the United States Federal Government failed to make a scheduled payment on a Treasury note, bond, or bill; or that one of the three major credit ratings agencies designate any United States debt in any form of default, before 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

U.S. Department of the Treasury

opens: Aug 19 · 10:00 PM UTC
closes: Jan 1, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
expires: Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
category: Economics
event: independent outcomes

Recent trades

Most recent first. Price is the YES side.

Time	Yes	No	Size	Taker
9d ago	10¢	90¢

Raw payload

Exactly what the API returned for this market.

Show JSON

market41

can_close_earlytrue

close_time2029-01-01T04:59:00Z

created_time2026-08-19T21:27:42.42892Z

early_close_conditionIf this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

YES price

Resolution rules

Recent trades

Raw payload

Order book