Will there be an at least 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

Before 2027activebinarygreater_or_equal

Public page Open on kalshi.com

Yes bid / ask

2¢ / 3¢

spread 1¢

Last trade

3¢

+1¢

No bid / ask

97¢ / 98¢

24h volume

9,180

546.9k lifetime

Open interest

253.6k

top of book 9,261 × 797

Closes

in 2mo

Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC

YES price

Close per candle with bid/ask band; volume below. Times in UTC.

24h · 1m 7d · 1h 30d · 1h 90d · 1d

Order book

Top of book, both sides expressed as YES prices.

Resolution rules

Verbatim from the venue. The analyst must quote these, never paraphrase.

If there is at least an earthquake of 8 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

USGS

opens: Jan 1 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes: Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
expires: Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor: 8
category: Climate and Weather
event: independent outcomes

Recent trades

Most recent first. Price is the YES side.

Time	Yes	No	Size	Taker
33m ago	3¢	97¢

Raw payload

Exactly what the API returned for this market.

Show JSON

market41

can_close_earlytrue

close_time2027-01-01T04:59:00Z

created_time2025-12-22T08:28:59.696591Z

early_close_conditionThis market will close and expire early if the event occurs.