Will there be an at least 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

Before 2027activebinarygreater_or_equal

Public page Open on kalshi.com

Yes bid / ask

3¢ / 4¢

spread 1¢

Last trade

4¢

+1¢

No bid / ask

96¢ / 97¢

24h volume

635

470.1k lifetime

Open interest

227.8k

top of book 12.2k × 715

Closes

in 3mo

Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC

YES price

Close per candle with bid/ask band; volume below. Times in UTC.

24h · 1m 7d · 1h 30d · 1h 90d · 1d

Order book

Top of book, both sides expressed as YES prices.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask5,40313¢
ask1212¢
ask10311¢

Resolution rules

Verbatim from the venue. The analyst must quote these, never paraphrase.

If there is at least an earthquake of 8 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

USGS

opens: Jan 1 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes: Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
expires: Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor: 8
category: Climate and Weather
event: independent outcomes

Recent trades

Most recent first. Price is the YES side.

Time	Yes	No	Size	Taker
2h ago	4¢	96¢

Raw payload

Exactly what the API returned for this market.

Show JSON

market41

can_close_earlytrue

close_time2027-01-01T04:59:00Z

created_time2025-12-22T08:28:59.696591Z

early_close_conditionThis market will close and expire early if the event occurs.