Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?

Before 2028activebinarygreater_or_equal

Public page Open on kalshi.com

Yes bid / ask

12¢ / 15¢

spread 3¢

Last trade

12¢

+1¢

No bid / ask

85¢ / 88¢

24h volume

14.0k lifetime

Open interest

8,489

top of book 473 × 207

Closes

in 28mo

Dec 31, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC

YES price

Close per candle with bid/ask band; volume below. Times in UTC.

24h · 1m 7d · 1h 30d · 1h 90d · 1d

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Top of book, both sides expressed as YES prices.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask25130¢
ask5025¢
ask4320¢
ask10019¢

Resolution rules

Verbatim from the venue. The analyst must quote these, never paraphrase.

If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Dec 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

USGS

opens: Jun 21, 2025 · 5:00 PM UTC
closes: Dec 31, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
expires: Dec 31, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor: 8
category: Climate and Weather
event: independent outcomes

Recent trades

Most recent first. Price is the YES side.

Time	Yes	No	Size	Taker
9h ago	12¢	88¢

Raw payload

Exactly what the API returned for this market.

Show JSON

market41

can_close_earlytrue

close_time2028-12-31T04:59:00Z

created_time2025-06-21T15:59:16.714219Z

early_close_conditionThis market will close and expire early if the event occurs.