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KXEARTHQUAKECALIFORNIA·closes in 26mo

Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?

YES means Before 2028

24h volume
1,036
18.6k lifetime
Open interest
10.8k
Spread
4¢
57 × 41 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
12%+11

A YES contract costs 13¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
88%

costs 91¢

YES bid / ask
9¢ / 13¢
NO bid / ask
87¢ / 91¢
Recent buying73% YES · 27% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5025¢
  • ask13324¢
  • ask10023¢
  • ask10522¢
  • ask4320¢
  • ask7319¢
  • ask50014¢
  • ask4113¢
spread4¢mid 11¢
  • bid579¢
  • bid3328¢
  • bid4367¢
  • bid5406¢
  • bid565¢
  • bid6884¢
  • bid1343¢
  • bid1692¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Dec 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

opened
Jun 21, 2025 · 5:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
8
ticker
KXEARTHQUAKECALIFORNIA-28
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 73% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1h ago12¢192bought yes
1h ago10¢200bought yes
1h ago10¢40bought yes
17h ago19¢12bought yes
17h ago19¢8.41bought yes
17h ago19¢0.52bought yes
17h ago14¢17bought yes
17h ago6¢29bought yes
17h ago6¢5bought yes
17h ago7¢9.45bought yes
17h ago7¢500bought yes
17h ago13¢14bought yes
17h ago13¢8.26bought yes
2d ago1¢118bought no
2d ago1¢50bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.