Verbatim from the venue. The analyst must quote these, never paraphrase.
If Venezuela agrees to or announces an OPEC exit before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
An announcement qualifies even if Venezuela's withdrawal will take effect later. Consideration, negotiations, a conditional proposal, an anonymous or leaked report, an opposition statement, or an OPEC+ policy change without an OPEC withdrawal does NOT qualify.
An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:
Formal signing of treaties, accords, or binding agreements
Parliamentary approval with binding effect
Official ratification
Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority
Official statements by authorized ministers
Official press releases
Formal declarations during government proceedings
Official statements to international bodies
Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.
The following do NOT qualify:
Preliminary discussions or expressions of interest without commitment
Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances
Opposition party statements
Leaked documents not confirmed by government sources
Think-tank recommendations
General aspirations without specific commitment
Draft legislation without approval
Regional actions
Retraction of previously announced commitments
early_close_conditionThis market will close and expire early if the event described in the Payout Criterion occurs.
event_tickerKXLEAVEOPEC-28JAN01
exchange_index0
expected_expiration_time2028-01-08T15:00:00Z
expiration_time2027-01-08T15:00:00Z
expiration_value
last_price_dollars0.0000
latest_expiration_time2027-01-08T15:00:00Z
liquidity_dollars0.0000
market_typebinary
no_ask_dollars0.9200
no_bid_dollars0.8400
no_sub_titleBefore Jan 1, 2027
notional_value_dollars1.0000
occurrence_datetime2027-01-01T15:00:00Z
open_interest_fp0.00
open_time2026-09-03T22:00:00Z
previous_price_dollars0.0000
previous_yes_ask_dollars0.8300
previous_yes_bid_dollars0.0000
price_level_structurelinear_cent
price_ranges1
[0]3
end1.0000
start0.0000
step0.0100
result
rules_primaryIf Venezuela agrees to or announces an OPEC exit before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
rules_secondaryAn announcement qualifies even if Venezuela's withdrawal will take effect later. Consideration, negotiations, a conditional proposal, an anonymous or leaked report, an opposition statement, or an OPEC+ policy change without an OPEC withdrawal does NOT qualify.
An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:
Formal signing of treaties, accords, or binding agreements
Parliamentary approval with binding effect
Official ratification
Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority
Official statements by authorized ministers
Official press releases
Formal declarations during government proceedings
Official statements to international bodies
Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.
The following do NOT qualify:
Preliminary discussions or expressions of interest without commitment
Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances
Opposition party statements
Leaked documents not confirmed by government sources
Think-tank recommendations
General aspirations without specific commitment
Draft legislation without approval
Regional actions
Retraction of previously announced commitments
settlement_timer_seconds1800
statusactive
strike_typecustom
tickerKXLEAVEOPEC-28JAN01-27JAN01
titleWill Venezuela agree to or announce an OPEC exit before Jan 1, 2027?