Verbatim from the venue. The analyst must quote these, never paraphrase.
If Eric Jones wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Eric Jones minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Eric Jones if Eric Jones wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Eric Jones loses.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Eric Jones runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Eric Jones will be summed.
If Eric Jones wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Eric Jones loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Eric Jones ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Eric Jones is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
early_close_conditionThis market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.
ask515¢
spread9¢mid 11¢
bid2006¢
bid701¢
bid1001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes
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Most recent first. Price is the YES side.
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Eric Jones, 15+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-CA04EJON-P15
1¢
7¢
0¢
–
6¢
0
0
0
in 14mo
active
event_ticker
KXMIDTERMMOV-CA04EJON
exchange_index0
expected_expiration_time2027-11-03T14:00:00Z
expiration_time2027-11-03T14:00:00Z
expiration_value
floor_strike5
last_price_dollars0.0000
latest_expiration_time2027-11-03T14:00:00Z
liquidity_dollars0.0000
market_typebinary
no_ask_dollars0.9400
no_bid_dollars0.8500
no_sub_titleEric Jones, 5+ pts
notional_value_dollars1.0000
occurrence_datetime2026-11-03T15:00:00Z
open_interest_fp0.00
open_time2026-09-08T18:37:59Z
previous_price_dollars0.0000
previous_yes_ask_dollars0.1600
previous_yes_bid_dollars0.0600
price_level_structuretapered_deci_cent
price_ranges3
[0]3
end0.1000
start0.0000
step0.0010
[1]3
end0.9000
start0.1000
step0.0100
[2]3
end1.0000
start0.9000
step0.0010
result
rules_primaryIf Eric Jones wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
rules_secondaryThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Eric Jones minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Eric Jones if Eric Jones wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Eric Jones loses.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Eric Jones runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Eric Jones will be summed.
If Eric Jones wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Eric Jones loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Eric Jones ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Eric Jones is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
settlement_timer_seconds1800
statusactive
strike_typegreater_or_equal
tickerKXMIDTERMMOV-CA04EJON-P5
titleWill the margin of victory for Eric Jones in CA-04 be at least 5 percentage points?