Verbatim from the venue. The analyst must quote these, never paraphrase.
If Scott Wiener wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 11th District by 16 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Scott Wiener minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Scott Wiener if Scott Wiener wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Scott Wiener loses.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Scott Wiener runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Scott Wiener will be summed.
If Scott Wiener wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Scott Wiener loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Scott Wiener ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Scott Wiener is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
rules_primaryIf Scott Wiener wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 11th District by 16 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
rules_secondaryThe margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Scott Wiener minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Scott Wiener if Scott Wiener wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Scott Wiener loses.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Scott Wiener runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Scott Wiener will be summed.
If Scott Wiener wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Scott Wiener loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Scott Wiener ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Scott Wiener is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
settlement_timer_seconds1800
statusactive
strike_typegreater_or_equal
tickerKXMIDTERMMOV-CA11SWIE-P16
titleWill the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 16 percentage points?