Will the margin of victory for Lateefah Simon in CA-12 be at least 45 percentage points?

If Lateefah Simon wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 12th District by 45 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Lateefah Simon minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lateefah Simon if Lateefah Simon wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Lateefah Simon loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Lateefah Simon runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Lateefah Simon will be summed. If Lateefah Simon wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Lateefah Simon loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Lateefah Simon ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Lateefah Simon is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

opens

Sep 8 · 6:37 PM UTC

closes

Nov 3, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early

expires

Nov 3, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC

floor

45