Will the margin of victory for Young Kim in CA-40 be at least 5 percentage points?

If Young Kim wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 40th District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Young Kim minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Young Kim if Young Kim wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Young Kim loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Young Kim runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Young Kim will be summed. If Young Kim wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Young Kim loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Young Kim ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Young Kim is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

opens

Sep 8 · 6:37 PM UTC

closes

Nov 3, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early

expires

Nov 3, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC

floor

5