Verbatim from the venue. The analyst must quote these, never paraphrase.
If the Supreme Court, in Department of the Air Force v. Prutehi Guahan, rules a federal RCRA permit-renewal application is not final agency action immediately reviewable under the Administrative Procedure Act, or that the federal government need not complete NEPA review before submitting such an application, then the market resolves to Yes.
The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled, in Department of the Air Force v. Prutehi Guahan, either that the federal government’s submission of a RCRA permit-renewal application to a state or territorial regulator is not “final agency action” immediately reviewable under the Administrative Procedure Act, or that the federal government is not required to comply with NEPA’s general environmental-review procedures before submitting a permit-renewal application under RCRA. A merits holding establishing either proposition resolves the market to Yes, whether or not the Court reaches the other question. The market resolves to No if the Court establishes neither proposition. If the case is dismissed as improvidently granted, dismissed, or remanded or otherwise disposed of without a merits holding establishing either proposition before August 1, 2028, the market resolves to No.
early_close_conditionThis market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
ask11991¢
ask8390¢
ask8289¢
ask20080¢
spread10¢mid 75¢
bid20070¢
bid24218¢
bid54517¢
bid53¢
bid162¢
bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes
Time
Yes
No
Size
Taker
2mo ago
71¢
29¢
0.12
no
2mo ago
79¢
21¢
0.12
yes
event_ticker
KXSCOTUSCASE-DEPPRU28
exchange_index0
expected_expiration_time2028-08-01T14:00:00Z
expiration_time2028-08-01T14:00:00Z
expiration_value
last_price_dollars0.7100
latest_expiration_time2028-08-01T14:00:00Z
liquidity_dollars0.0000
market_typebinary
no_ask_dollars0.3000
no_bid_dollars0.2000
no_sub_titleBefore Aug 1, 2028
notional_value_dollars1.0000
occurrence_datetime2028-08-01T14:00:00Z
open_interest_fp0.00
open_time2026-07-24T00:00:00Z
previous_price_dollars0.7100
previous_yes_ask_dollars0.9800
previous_yes_bid_dollars0.0200
price_level_structurelinear_cent
price_ranges1
[0]3
end1.0000
start0.0000
step0.0100
result
rules_primaryIf the Supreme Court, in Department of the Air Force v. Prutehi Guahan, rules a federal RCRA permit-renewal application is not final agency action immediately reviewable under the Administrative Procedure Act, or that the federal government need not complete NEPA review before submitting such an application, then the market resolves to Yes.
rules_secondaryThe Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled, in Department of the Air Force v. Prutehi Guahan, either that the federal government’s submission of a RCRA permit-renewal application to a state or territorial regulator is not “final agency action” immediately reviewable under the Administrative Procedure Act, or that the federal government is not required to comply with NEPA’s general environmental-review procedures before submitting a permit-renewal application under RCRA. A merits holding establishing either proposition resolves the market to Yes, whether or not the Court reaches the other question. The market resolves to No if the Court establishes neither proposition. If the case is dismissed as improvidently granted, dismissed, or remanded or otherwise disposed of without a merits holding establishing either proposition before August 1, 2028, the market resolves to No.
settlement_timer_seconds1800
statusactive
tickerKXSCOTUSCASE-DEPPRU28
titleWill the Supreme Court rule in favor of United States Department of the Air Force in Department of the Air Force v. Prutehi Guahan