Verbatim from the venue. The analyst must quote these, never paraphrase.
If the Supreme Court, in Guerrero v. Johnson, rules a habeas claim does not rely on a previously unavailable new constitutional rule when the petitioner could have asserted a claim based on that rule in an earlier federal habeas petition, then the market resolves to Yes.
The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled that a habeas claim does not rely on a “new rule of constitutional law, made retroactive to cases on collateral review by the Supreme Court, that was previously unavailable” when the petitioner could have asserted a claim based on that rule in a prior federal habeas petition, regardless of whether the earlier claim would have succeeded, after Issuance and before August 1, 2028. The market resolves to No if the Court holds that such a claim may qualify as previously unavailable because it lacked a possibility of merit when the earlier petition was filed, or if the case is dismissed, dismissed as improvidently granted, or remanded without a merits ruling on this question.
early_close_conditionThis market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
event_ticker
KXSCOTUSCASE-GUEJON28
exchange_index0
expected_expiration_time2028-08-01T14:00:00Z
expiration_time2028-08-01T14:00:00Z
expiration_value
last_price_dollars0.0000
latest_expiration_time2028-08-01T14:00:00Z
liquidity_dollars0.0000
market_typebinary
no_ask_dollars0.3600
no_bid_dollars0.2700
no_sub_titleBefore Aug 1, 2028
notional_value_dollars1.0000
occurrence_datetime2028-08-01T14:00:00Z
open_interest_fp0.00
open_time2026-07-24T00:00:00Z
previous_price_dollars0.0000
previous_yes_ask_dollars0.7300
previous_yes_bid_dollars0.6300
price_level_structurelinear_cent
price_ranges1
[0]3
end1.0000
start0.0000
step0.0100
result
rules_primaryIf the Supreme Court, in Guerrero v. Johnson, rules a habeas claim does not rely on a previously unavailable new constitutional rule when the petitioner could have asserted a claim based on that rule in an earlier federal habeas petition, then the market resolves to Yes.
rules_secondaryThe Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled that a habeas claim does not rely on a “new rule of constitutional law, made retroactive to cases on collateral review by the Supreme Court, that was previously unavailable” when the petitioner could have asserted a claim based on that rule in a prior federal habeas petition, regardless of whether the earlier claim would have succeeded, after Issuance and before August 1, 2028. The market resolves to No if the Court holds that such a claim may qualify as previously unavailable because it lacked a possibility of merit when the earlier petition was filed, or if the case is dismissed, dismissed as improvidently granted, or remanded without a merits ruling on this question.
settlement_timer_seconds1800
statusactive
tickerKXSCOTUSCASE-GUEJON28
titleWill the Supreme Court rule in favor of Eric Guerrero in Guerrero v. Johnson