Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Republican National Committee in Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota

If the Supreme Court, in Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota, rules neither the National Voter Registration Act nor a federal consent decree bars Arizona from requiring satisfactory evidence of U.S. citizenship on its state voter-registration form, and that the Act does not bar Arizona from canceling noncitizens’ registrations within 90 days of a federal election, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled that neither the National Voter Registration Act nor a federal consent decree prohibits Arizona from requiring voter-registration applicants using a state registration form to produce satisfactory evidence of U.S. citizenship, and that the National Voter Registration Act does not prohibit Arizona from implementing a program within 90 days of a federal election to cancel the registrations of voters who are not U.S. citizens, after Issuance and before August 1, 2028. The market resolves to Yes only if the Court answers both questions in that manner; a split ruling, dismissal, DIG, or remand without a merits ruling satisfying both conditions resolves to No.

opens

Jul 23 · 2:00 PM UTC

closes

Aug 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early

expires

Aug 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC

category

Politics

event

independent outcomes