Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2028?

Before Jan 1, 2028activebinary

Public page Open on kalshi.com

Yes bid / ask

16¢ / 20¢

spread 4¢

Last trade

20¢

–

No bid / ask

80¢ / 84¢

24h volume

40.7k lifetime

Open interest

17.8k

top of book 82 × 485

Closes

in 16mo

Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC

YES price

Close per candle with bid/ask band; volume below. Times in UTC.

24h · 1m 7d · 1h 30d · 1h 90d · 1d

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Top of book, both sides expressed as YES prices.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask1,00450¢
ask53547¢
ask15046¢
ask4845¢

Resolution rules

Verbatim from the venue. The analyst must quote these, never paraphrase.

If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jan 1, 2028 to qualify. The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region. A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date. A Level 4 travel advisory means "Do not travel" and is the highest advisory level due to life-threatening risks.

opens: Jan 7 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes: Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
expires: Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC

Recent trades

Most recent first. Price is the YES side.

Time	Yes	No	Size	Taker
2d ago	20¢	80¢	50	yes

Raw payload

Exactly what the API returned for this market.

Show JSON

market39

can_close_earlytrue

close_time2028-01-01T04:59:00Z

created_time2026-01-07T00:05:17.265404Z

early_close_conditionThis market will close and expire early if the U.S. State Department issues a qualifying advisory for the specific country.