Verbatim from the venue. The analyst must quote these, never paraphrase.
If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2028 is strictly above $1.1 trillion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis. It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data.
Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit. For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion.
Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2028. Subsequent annual revisions will not be considered.
rules_primaryIf the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2028 is strictly above $1.1 trillion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
rules_secondaryThe Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis. It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data.
Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit. For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion.
Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2028. Subsequent annual revisions will not be considered.
settlement_timer_seconds1800
statusactive
strike_typegreater
tickerKXTRADEDEFICIT-29FEB05-T1100
titleWill the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2028 be above $1.1 trillion?