Will Donald Trump or any members of his immediate family or their spouses receive a presidential pardon before Jan 20, 2029?

If Donald Trump or any members of his immediate family or their spouses has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves to Yes if the specified person receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during the specified Presidential term and before the deadline date. The pardon can be for any federal crime. Commutations that reduce sentences and reprieves that delay punishment also satisfy the criterion. State-level pardons do not count. The Presidential term continues even if the President changes due to succession or resignation. As of issuance, qualifying names include: Melania Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner, Eric Trump, Lara Trump, Tiffany Trump, Michael Boulos, Barron Trump, Elizabeth Trump Grau, James Walter Grau. Immediate family includes spouses, children, and siblings.

opens

Oct 24, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC

closes

Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early

expires

Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC

category

Politics

event

independent outcomes