Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?

Before 2050activebinary

Public page Open on kalshi.com

Yes bid / ask

66¢ / 69¢

spread 3¢

Last trade

70¢

–

No bid / ask

31¢ / 34¢

24h volume

0

21.6k lifetime

Open interest

4,017

top of book 35 × 67

Closes

in 282mo

Jan 1, 2050 · 4:59 AM UTC

YES price

Close per candle with bid/ask band; volume below. Times in UTC.

24h · 1m 7d · 1h 30d · 1h 90d · 1d

Order book

Top of book, both sides expressed as YES prices.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask6094¢
ask5193¢
ask285¢

Resolution rules

Verbatim from the venue. The analyst must quote these, never paraphrase.

If the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly has reached or exceeded +2.0°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average) in any calendar year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.

At least two of the Source Agencies must report that we have hit the 2.0°C threshold.

Settlement sources

opens: Jun 5, 2025 · 4:45 PM UTC
closes: Jan 1, 2050 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
expires: Jan 1, 2050 · 3:00 PM UTC
category: Climate and Weather
event: independent outcomes

Recent trades

Most recent first. Price is the YES side.

Raw payload

Exactly what the API returned for this market.

Show JSON

market39

can_close_earlytrue

close_time2050-01-01T04:59:00Z

created_time2025-06-05T16:28:27.496599Z

early_close_conditionThis market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

ask

735

84¢

ask40076¢

ask46375¢

ask52270¢

ask6769¢

spread3¢mid 68¢

bid3566¢
bid6265¢
bid56664¢
bid1,31950¢
bid5349¢
bid20031¢
bid60030¢
bid5013¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

event_ticker

KXWARMING-50

exchange_index0

expected_expiration_time2050-01-01T15:00:00Z

expiration_time2050-01-08T15:00:00Z

expiration_value

last_price_dollars0.7000

latest_expiration_time2050-01-08T15:00:00Z

market_typebinary

no_ask_dollars0.3400

no_bid_dollars0.3100

no_sub_titleBefore 2050

notional_value_dollars1.0000

open_interest_fp4017.19

open_time2025-06-05T16:45:00Z

previous_price_dollars0.7000

previous_yes_ask_dollars0.6900

previous_yes_bid_dollars0.6500

price_level_structurelinear_cent

price_ranges1

[0]3

end1.0000

start0.0000

step0.0100

result

rules_primaryIf the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly has reached or exceeded +2.0°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average) in any calendar year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.

rules_secondaryAt least two of the Source Agencies must report that we have hit the 2.0°C threshold.