Verbatim from the venue. The analyst must quote these, never paraphrase.
If a member of the Republican Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 6.00-6.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.
The popular vote margin is calculated as (total votes for the winner minus total votes for second place) divided by total votes, times 100, rounded to two decimal places. The calculation uses the states' and DC's most recent certificates of ascertainment of presidential election results as of the date of the January joint session of Congress. If multiple certificates of ascertainment are sent to Congress for a state, the one Congress counts is used. If Congress rejects all certificates for a state, the most recently issued one is used. Votes cast for a candidate under multiple party nominations are aggregated. If the winner changes party affiliation between the election and being sworn in, the market resolves based on their Election Day party. If no party wins the popular vote (exact tie at 0.00%), all markets resolve to No.
opens
May 20 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
May 6, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
expires
Jan 8, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
6
cap
6.99
Recent trades
Most recent first. Price is the YES side.
Time
Yes
No
Size
Taker
2d ago
Raw payload
Exactly what the API returned for this market.
Show JSON
market43
can_close_earlytrue
cap_strike6.99
close_time2029-05-06T15:00:00Z
created_time2026-05-20T15:25:22.748357Z
early_close_condition
ask
460
52¢
ask2,00037¢
ask98136¢
ask4107¢
ask106¢
ask6305¢
ask4,5524¢
spread1¢mid 4¢
bid5523¢
bid1002¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes
3¢
97¢
12
no
5d ago
3¢
97¢
43
no
5d ago
3¢
97¢
19
no
5d ago
3¢
97¢
50
no
6d ago
3¢
97¢
45
no
6d ago
3¢
97¢
55
no
6d ago
3¢
97¢
5
no
6d ago
3¢
97¢
50
no
6d ago
3¢
97¢
0.75
no
6d ago
3¢
97¢
50
no
8d ago
3¢
97¢
28
no
8d ago
3¢
97¢
50
no
8d ago
3¢
97¢
16
no
8d ago
3¢
97¢
46
no
8d ago
3¢
97¢
25
no
8d ago
3¢
97¢
50
no
10d ago
3¢
97¢
0.49
no
10d ago
3¢
97¢
10
no
10d ago
3¢
97¢
23
no
10d ago
3¢
97¢
10
no
10d ago
3¢
97¢
15
no
10d ago
3¢
97¢
39
no
11d ago
3¢
97¢
79
no
11d ago
3¢
97¢
50
no
11d ago
3¢
97¢
5
no
This market will close and expire at the first 10:00 AM ET following the occurrence of an event encompassed by the Payout Criterion for any party, based on the states' and DC's certificates of ascertainment of presidential election results.
event_tickerPOPVOTEMOV-28NOV07
exchange_index0
expected_expiration_time2029-01-08T15:00:00Z
expiration_time2029-05-06T15:00:00Z
expiration_value
floor_strike6
last_price_dollars0.0300
latest_expiration_time2029-05-06T15:00:00Z
liquidity_dollars0.0000
market_typebinary
no_ask_dollars0.9700
no_bid_dollars0.9600
no_sub_titleRepublican by 6.0% to 6.99%
notional_value_dollars1.0000
occurrence_datetime2029-01-08T15:00:00Z
open_interest_fp1762.00
open_time2026-05-20T18:00:00Z
previous_price_dollars0.0300
previous_yes_ask_dollars0.0400
previous_yes_bid_dollars0.0300
price_level_structurelinear_cent
price_ranges1
[0]3
end1.0000
start0.0000
step0.0100
result
rules_primaryIf a member of the Republican Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 6.00-6.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.
rules_secondaryThe popular vote margin is calculated as (total votes for the winner minus total votes for second place) divided by total votes, times 100, rounded to two decimal places. The calculation uses the states' and DC's most recent certificates of ascertainment of presidential election results as of the date of the January joint session of Congress. If multiple certificates of ascertainment are sent to Congress for a state, the one Congress counts is used. If Congress rejects all certificates for a state, the most recently issued one is used. Votes cast for a candidate under multiple party nominations are aggregated. If the winner changes party affiliation between the election and being sworn in, the market resolves based on their Election Day party. If no party wins the popular vote (exact tie at 0.00%), all markets resolve to No.
settlement_timer_seconds14
statusactive
strike_typebetween
tickerPOPVOTEMOV-28NOV07-REP600T699
titleWill Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 6.0% to 6.99%?