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Apple DOJ lawsuit·closes in 40mo

DOJ wins their anti-trust case against Apple?

YES means Before 2030

24h volume
6.39
59.3k lifetime
Open interest
8,146
−21 over 7d
Spread
4¢
10 × 14 at the touch
24h range
28¢ – 37¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
28%

A YES contract costs 28¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
72%

costs 76¢

YES bid / ask
24¢ / 28¢
NO bid / ask
72¢ / 76¢
24h low 28¢24h high 37¢
Recent buying58% YES · 42% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
20¢25¢30¢35¢40¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2080¢
  • ask3.475¢
  • ask6.3972¢
  • ask35671¢
  • ask670¢
  • ask1.7837¢
  • ask20529¢
  • ask1428¢
spread4¢mid 26¢
  • bid1024¢
  • bid7023¢
  • bid20222¢
  • bid32221¢
  • bid20019¢
  • bid1210¢
  • bid2.559¢
  • bid1647¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If District Court for the District of New Jersey finds Apple responsible for any of the anti-trust claims made by the Department of Justice, the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 26, 2024 · 12:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
APPLEUS-29DEC31
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Courts consider Apple a monopoly?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 58% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7s ago28¢1bought yes
24h ago37¢1.29bought yes
24h ago28¢5bought yes
24h ago28¢0.1bought yes
1d ago28¢3.4bought yes
2d ago28¢1.5bought yes
2d ago28¢12bought yes
2d ago23¢15bought no
2d ago24¢10bought no
2d ago24¢5bought no
3d ago23¢1.5bought no
3d ago24¢5bought no
3d ago24¢5bought no
4d ago29¢1.25bought yes
4d ago29¢0.03bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.