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China overtakes US GDP·closes in 40mo

Will China overtake US GDP by 2030?

YES means By 2030

24h volume
2.3
129.3k lifetime
Open interest
42.3k
+23.7k over 90d
Spread
2¢
0.24 × 2.06 at the touch
24h range
14¢ – 22¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
14%

A YES contract costs 16¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
86%

costs 86¢

YES bid / ask
14¢ / 16¢
NO bid / ask
84¢ / 86¢
24h low 14¢24h high 22¢
Recent buying51% YES · 49% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢15¢20¢25¢volJun 25Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask530¢
  • ask3,27622¢
  • ask79621¢
  • ask73220¢
  • ask6519¢
  • ask16818¢
  • ask1617¢
  • ask2.0616¢
spread2¢mid 15¢
  • bid0.2414¢
  • bid9313¢
  • bid34512¢
  • bid6611¢
  • bid9610¢
  • bid149¢
  • bid2548¢
  • bid2087¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If China has overtaken US GDP by 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 30, 2024 · 12:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
CHINAUSGDP-30
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 51% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
13h ago14¢0.24bought no
13h ago14¢2.06bought no
1d ago14¢1bought no
1d ago14¢5.55bought no
2d ago14¢0.7bought no
3d ago17¢17bought yes
3d ago17¢11bought yes
4d ago17¢4.65bought yes
4d ago15¢1.16bought no
4d ago15¢3.49bought no
5d ago14¢95bought no
5d ago14¢9.74bought no
5d ago15¢0.26bought no
6d ago17¢5.55bought yes
6d ago14¢8.95bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.