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House winner·closes in 4mo

Will Republicans win the House in 2026?

YES means Republican Party

24h volume
280.3k
21.58M lifetime
Open interest
13.77M
+1.32M over 7d
Spread
0¢
1,101 × 70.1k at the touch
24h range
9¢ – 11¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
9%−2

A YES contract costs 9¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
91%

costs 91¢

YES bid / ask
9¢ / 9¢
NO bid / ask
91¢ / 91¢
24h low 9¢24h high 11¢
Recent buying94% YES · 6% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask442.6k11¢
  • ask7,79610¢
  • ask28.8k10¢
  • ask30010¢
  • ask7,37910¢
  • ask1049¢
  • ask20.0k9¢
  • ask70.1k9¢
spread0¢mid 9¢
  • bid1,1019¢
  • bid1009¢
  • bid6,3089¢
  • bid458¢
  • bid2468¢
  • bid25.5k8¢
  • bid2,0068¢
  • bid1008¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Republican Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. House. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the Speaker of the House on February 1, 2027.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
CONTROLH-2026-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 100¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 94% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3m ago9¢95bought no
4m ago9¢134bought yes
17m ago9¢1,022bought yes
18m ago9¢5bought yes
23m ago9¢25bought no
24m ago9¢102bought yes
25m ago9¢100bought yes
25m ago9¢105bought yes
28m ago9¢0.09bought yes
28m ago9¢2,262bought yes
28m ago9¢2,243bought yes
29m ago9¢21bought yes
30m ago9¢27bought no
32m ago9¢103bought yes
32m ago9¢11bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.