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House winner·closes in 4mo

Will Democrats win the House in 2026?

YES means Democratic Party

24h volume
214.6k
12.34M lifetime
Open interest
8.23M
+953.9k over 7d
Spread
1¢
20.0k × 13 at the touch
24h range
90¢ – 92¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
92%+1

A YES contract costs 91¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
8%

costs 9¢

YES bid / ask
91¢ / 91¢
NO bid / ask
9¢ / 9¢
24h low 90¢24h high 92¢
Recent buying29% YES · 71% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
80¢85¢90¢95¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask6592¢
  • ask2592¢
  • ask20.8k92¢
  • ask100.3k92¢
  • ask5,00092¢
  • ask31592¢
  • ask1,61992¢
  • ask1391¢
spread1¢mid 91¢
  • bid20.0k91¢
  • bid10091¢
  • bid13.3k91¢
  • bid15.0k90¢
  • bid2,32590¢
  • bid7,20990¢
  • bid62.3k90¢
  • bid290.0k89¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. House. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the Speaker of the House on February 1, 2027.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
CONTROLH-2026-D
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 100¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 29% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3m ago92¢6.92bought yes
3m ago91¢15bought yes
5m ago91¢1,006bought no
5m ago91¢28bought no
12m ago91¢3.31bought no
12m ago92¢5.43bought yes
12m ago92¢11bought yes
15m ago92¢22bought yes
18m ago92¢0.01bought yes
18m ago92¢0.55bought yes
20m ago92¢1.05bought yes
20m ago91¢12bought yes
20m ago91¢2.89bought yes
20m ago91¢9.99bought yes
20m ago91¢5.43bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.