House winner·closes in 29mo

Will the Democratic party win the House in 2028?

YES means Democratic party

24h volume
155
13.9k lifetime
Open interest
6,423
+505 over 7d
Spread
123 × 431 at the touch
24h range
69¢ – 75¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
72%

A YES contract costs 75¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
28%

costs 28¢

YES bid / ask
72¢ / 75¢
NO bid / ask
25¢ / 28¢
24h low 69¢24h high 75¢
Recent buying82% YES · 18% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

65¢70¢75¢80¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic party has won control of the House in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. House. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the Speaker of the House on February 1, 2029.

Settlement sources
opened
May 15 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
CONTROLH-2028-D
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 82% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5h ago72¢62bought no
6h ago75¢23bought yes
6h ago75¢39bought yes
8h ago72¢5.24bought no
9h ago75¢13bought yes
19h ago72¢13bought no
1d ago72¢0.31bought no
1d ago75¢5.24bought yes
2d ago75¢1.31bought yes
2d ago75¢6.57bought yes
4d ago74¢1.32bought yes
4d ago74¢13bought yes
5d ago75¢204bought yes
5d ago74¢52bought yes
5d ago74¢1.31bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.