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House winner·closes in 29mo

Will the Democratic party win the House in 2028?

YES means Democratic party

24h volume
158
13.9k lifetime
Open interest
6,421
Spread
3¢
121 × 494 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
72%

A YES contract costs 75¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
28%

costs 28¢

YES bid / ask
72¢ / 75¢
NO bid / ask
25¢ / 28¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask13887¢
  • ask50086¢
  • ask45985¢
  • ask10079¢
  • ask10078¢
  • ask10077¢
  • ask1,10076¢
  • ask49475¢
spread3¢mid 74¢
  • bid12172¢
  • bid23371¢
  • bid14370¢
  • bid1,10069¢
  • bid168¢
  • bid48065¢
  • bid9664¢
  • bid10061¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic party has won control of the House in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. House. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the Speaker of the House on February 1, 2029.

Settlement sources
opened
May 15 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
CONTROLH-2028-D
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 101¢).

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.